Business Expectations Survey in Nigeria: Its Techniques, Uses and Challenges

Olorunsola E. Olowofeso^1, and Sani I. Doguwa¹

¹Statistics Department, Central Bank of Nigeria, Abuja

Cite this paper

Olorunsola E. Olowofeso and Sani I. Doguwa. Business Expectations Survey in Nigeria: Its Techniques, Uses and Challenges. American Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics. 2016; 4(6):169-172. doi: 10.12691/AJAMS-4-6-1

Abstract

This paper examines the techniques, uses and the various challenges of Business Expectations Survey (BES) in Nigeria. The method of Stratified random sampling design adopted for the collection of the data was described. The firms (small, medium and large) considered are subdivided into strata: industrial, construction, wholesale/ retail trade and services sectors. The method of diffusion indices used to compute the relevant indicators and the business confidence index were also discussed. The uses of BES to check the consistency of exchange rate, inflation rate and lending rate by the deposit money banks as well as for short-term planning and forecasting were highlighted. Both the endogenous and exogenous challenges are discussed. Suggestions to remedy some of the challenges were proffered and conclusion drawn on how mutual understanding and strong network cooperation between data collecting agencies and stakeholders can enhance data credibility and reliability.

Keywords

stratified random sampling, diffusion indices, respondent firms, data issues

Copyright

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

References

[1]	Central Bank of Nigeria (2012). Handbook of Statistical Methods.
[2]	Doguwa, S.I., Olowofeso, O. E and Essien, S. I. (2011). Business outlook of small, medium and large scale enterprises: implication for monetary policy in Nigeria, IFC Bulletin, No.34, 236-247.
[3]	Ece, D., Türknur H. and Oral, E. (2005). Building up a Real Sector Business Confidence Index for Turkey. Joint European Commission – OECD Workshop on International Development of Business and Consumer tendency surveys, Brussels.
[4]	Habibullah, M.S. (1994). Do business firm in developing economy make rational economic forecast? The evidence from Malaysia business expectations survey of limited companies. Asian Economies, 23(4), 73-92.
[5]	Habibullah, M.S. (1996). Forecasting economic variables in the agricultural sector: Testing rational expectations hypothesis on survey data. Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, 12(2), 171-184.
[6]	Habibullah, M.S. (2001). Rationality of insurance firms’ forecasts: Results of unbiasedness and efficiency tests. Malaysia Management Journal, 5(1&2), 107-117.
[7]	Nilsson R. (1999), “Business Tendency Surveys and Cyclical Analysis”, Business Tendency Surveys, Proceedings of the First Joint OECD-ADB Workshop, Manila, November.
[8]	Olowofeso O. E. and Doguwa, S. I. (2012). Consumer sentiment and confidence indices in Nigeria: a panel data analysis IFC Bulletin No 36, 191-216.
[9]	Zaller J. and Feldman, S. (1992). A Simple Theory of the Survey Response: Answering Questions versus Revealing Preferences American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 36, No. 3, pp. 579-616.