Modelling and Forecasting of Area, Production, Yield and Total Seeds of Rice and Wheat in SAARC Countries and the World towards Food Security

P.K. Sahu¹, P. Mishra^1, , B. S. Dhekale¹, Vishwajith K.P.¹ and K. Padmanaban¹

¹Department of Agricultural Statistics, Bidhan Chanda Krishi Vishwavidyalaya, Nadia, West Bengal, India

Cite this paper

P.K. Sahu, P. Mishra, B. S. Dhekale, Vishwajith K.P. and K. Padmanaban. Modelling and Forecasting of Area, Production, Yield and Total Seeds of Rice and Wheat in SAARC Countries and the World towards Food Security. American Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics. 2015; 3(1):34-48. doi: 10.12691/AJAMS-3-1-7

Abstract

In this paper, under the background of overall food security situation in the SAARC countries, attempts have been made to analyse the production behaviour along with the total seeds of two major food crops rice and wheat. This will help to draw up strategies and programmes for regional cooperation in ensuring food security and reducing hunger and malnutrition in the region. Forecasting of area, production, yield and total seed production will not only help to solve the food security problem but also seed security in these SAARC countries in future. In addition to descriptive statistics, the Box – Jenkins ARIMA modelling technique has been used to analyse the information from 1961 through 2010. The forecast shows that rice and wheat production for the year 2020 would be about 794 and 777 million tons respectively in the world. In-spite of increase in production the study reveals that the yield of rice and wheat in world would be 4.35 t/ha and 3.4 t/ ha in 2020 but the yield of these two crops in SAARC countries, barring one country in each, will remain far below the world projection. Thus, under the given remote possibility of horizontal expansion, the study emphasises the need for quantum jump in the per hectare yield of these two crops for this region. The study also advocates that good quality of seeds in good amount be made available to the farmers, otherwise the whole food security of this part of the Globe would be under tremendous risk.

Keywords

ARIMA, forecasting, production, yield, seed, SAARC countries

Copyright

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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