Log Normal Distribution Approach for Forecasting the Spread of Covid-19 in Nigeria

Fawei Tonbra Erepamo Lawrence¹, Orumie Ukamaka Cynthia^2, and Biu Emmanuel Oyinebifun²

¹Department of Mathematics/Statistics, Ignatius Ajuru University of Education, Rivers State, Nigeria

²Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Port Harcourt, Choba, Rivers State, Nigeria

Cite this paper

Fawei Tonbra Erepamo Lawrence, Orumie Ukamaka Cynthia and Biu Emmanuel Oyinebifun. Log Normal Distribution Approach for Forecasting the Spread of Covid-19 in Nigeria. American Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics. 2023; 11(1):13-21. doi: 10.12691/AJAMS-11-1-3

Abstract

The Nigeria National Weekly Covid-19 confirmed cases were used in this study work to anticipate the predicted number of cases by Lagos and Abuja areas using the log normal distribution technique. Using trend analysis, this study was able to determine the trend component in both Lagos and Abuja Covid-19 confirmed cases (i.e. Quadratic Trend). According to the findings, the number of confirmed cases of covid-19 increased at the start of the pandemic before starting to decline slightly as the number of cases increased in both areas on the Nigeria National Weekly Covid-19 report each week. The distribution of Covid-19 confirmed cases in both locations was then modelled using the quadratic trend, which was found to be appropriate. For simple examination of the expected (average) distribution and variation of both FCT and Lagos on the Nigeria National Weekly Covid-19 confirmed cases, log-normal distribution techniques were converted to a quadratic form. The results showed that the Nigeria National Weekly Covid-19 confirmed cases in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) had an expected value of 27 cases per week, while the Lagos State Covid-19 confirmed cases had an expected value of 19 cases per week. Additionally, this study established a mathematical relationship between the Nigeria National Weekly Confirmed cases and the FCT and Lagos COVID-19 confirmed cases. This was accomplished by constructing their mathematical functions for forecasting purposes: probability density function and cumulative density function. It was also able to predict the anticipated pandemic cases of both FCT and Lagos on the Nigeria National Weekly Covid-19 cases and established a quadratic trend for both FCT and Lagos on the Nigeria National Weekly Covid-19 confirmed cases (NWC).

Keywords

log normal distribution, trend analysis, expected number of cases, Nigeria National Weekly Covid-19 confirmed cases

Copyright

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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